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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
Do Kwon on the run
A good rule is to never believe a rumor until its officially deined. On September 17, Do-Kwon claimed he was not "on the run".
I am not “on the run” or anything similar - for any government agency that has shown interest to communicate, we are in full cooperation and we don’t have anything to hide
— Do Kwon 🌕 (@stablekwon) September 17, 2022
I like how he put "on the run" in quotes, as though its so preposterous and alien that he has no idea what it even means. Restricting comments is also a huge 🚩. I wrote about him before. It is pretty obvious he's running a scam. I'm skeptical of the very nature of algorithmic algo-coins and their track record has been pretty shit. It's just a bad proposition. Best case scenario, the token is worth $1, worse case it's worth $0. Not much upside.
Now throw in a loud mouth arrogant personality like Do Kwon and it gets even worse. To top it all off, his stable coin already imploded, and less than a month later he's ready to roll out a new one with pretty much the same economics, kind of like a reset. And I thought fiat guys liked running the money printer.
South Korean authorities told CNBC on Wednesday that they have asked two cryptocurrency exchanges KuCoin and OKX to freeze more than $60 million worth of bitcoin linked to Do Kwon. Kwon is the founder of Terraform Labs, the company behind the algorithmic stablecoin terraUSD or UST and its sister token luna, whose $60 billion collapse sent shock waves through the market. South Korean authorities have sought Kwon’s arrest and claimed he is on the run. Kwon has insisted that he is not hiding.
He's one of those guys that the more you read about the worse it gets. Okay, he's a loud mouth and lavish spender. I guess he's also a bullshitter. And he was self-dealing on top of that??
I never understood this kind of behavior. You literally manage to sell a money printer, making millions for yourself knowing damn well it's going to blow up. But that's not enough. You gotta let it ride and siphon off more tokens during the collapse and try to run the same scam again. It's like the politician cheating on his wife... with some intern from the office... and buying her gifts using campaign contributions. Where do you stop??
Anyway, obviously crypto is still hurting and everyone is avoiding it. Bitcoin enthusiasts like Pomp dropped the laser eyes and any reference to Bitcoin from their bios. Now they're just "curious". And I'm fine with all that. I get it, a lot of people built their entire identities around crypto, and people aren't stupid. They remember you pumping crypto at levels 3x what they are today. So no 10% bull market is going to make up for your clown behavior over the last year.
Overall I still think its a good thing. We need less crypto "personalities", but the reality is in a few years, we'll have forgotten about all the bad calls and reckless behavior and crypto will hopefully somewhat recover. And when it does it will bring a whole new batch of opportunists and scam artists.
Action
Volumes are still down. Much of the week was spent at a 24-hour trailing average pool size under 20 BNB. Like I've been saying, it doesn't look good for PS predictions.
Winners and Losers
Again, you can see weekly winners here and the weekly losers here.
| Place | Account | Games Played | Won | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xbaea4d74fe243adefc8387d9c78772e68163abc3 | 154 | 139.2707 | 35.7432 | 3.5618 |
| 2 | 0x75bca6108cd1c62b3257248fd124385b02192997 | 174 | 138.3253 | 32.0707 | 3.3453 |
| 3 | 0x0df58d858792992fd9c3bbef07a93111e3b105a1 | 104 | 90.8473 | 22.0236 | 3.3380 |
| 4 | 0xee5af98b35e14d9ea3eb0f899429a7ad558dcede | 63 | 73.5205 | 11.6995 | 5.4667 |
| 5 | 0x241dd7da7cf7e8753c79076aa5324ba809cde7d5 | 11 | 23.8225 | 4.3651 | 2.6736 |
| 6 | 0xda412c59e0683d3da4e61dd607f2cfc9911856eb | 128 | 19.7886 | 19.8460 | 0.8778 |
| 7 | 0x284a84b612665d158604aa8b8840f6fda8046d93 | 122 | 15.7877 | 12.4250 | 0.9262 |
| 8 | 0x5a8f627d6aaa81dd96c14e3aa5cba789ce00206d | 33 | 12.7716 | 12.3148 | 0.9199 |
| 9 | 0x483621e9266a760650ecaa31a8a3bc1ff7eec37c | 211 | 12.6067 | 14.9129 | 0.6032 |
| 10 | 0x2af88f97c1919158f988c6a05e410653b1e0377e | 109 | 12.3725 | 5.4338 | 1.8787 |
I'm surprised we got some big winners this week. This is the first week in a while we've seen a number of winners over 100 BNB. It's a little early to decipher whether the accounts figured out a new secret sauce, but I'm skeptical mostly due to the large bet size. If you're betting an average of 3 BNB into a sub-20 pool, you gotta be very confident just because the odds move a lot. The winners aren't repeat players so it's something to keep an eye out for.
Let's see how the losers did...
| Place | Account | Games Played | Won | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x712fdd09ac64d5776077e2b813fcd1b0431f5278 | 127 | -49.5246 | -11.6345 | 3.7994 |
| 2 | 0x3d3251e4fe944941f69264bad2d6d914aa80587f | 72 | -43.4269 | -14.3578 | 3.5572 |
| 3 | 0xe75938fa4c8f16b549f54e79e44c7826dedda693 | 106 | -36.0409 | -16.9079 | 1.3345 |
| 4 | 0x0ccc9ae3d044baf66ddcc1faeffb96f0c4d31d10 | 552 | -33.4206 | -13.6175 | 0.7567 |
| 5 | 0xad24c8fdea96f7b97db39b308990d2fd580d82e1 | 119 | -32.9453 | 9.3183 | 0.7767 |
| 6 | 0xa172da45d45b0ce6c46ec25dcf866c145f0f0e33 | 447 | -32.7946 | -25.4568 | 0.5585 |
| 7 | 0x5616ee15a593dab14dfcac05055c58f23f560e05 | 89 | -30.0322 | -16.9002 | 1.5921 |
| 8 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 717 | -29.8526 | -43.1969 | 0.5885 |
| 9 | 0x99d34c5da61752e5fa94e74c012706824b647a53 | 17 | -26.4102 | -8.7308 | 2.6220 |
| 10 | 0x6f404d87268d09ac2d8409108f64e7495e57cef3 | 66 | -22.9853 | -9.7184 | 1.2591 |
Losers weren't that bad! No loser over 100 BNB which is surprising. Just some guys on a bad streak. The losers aren't even repeat losers.
By the way, if you happen to have an account with a lot of losses and you figure out some secret sauce that will finally yield some wins, my advice is to keep the same account! People monitor accounts very closely and info on loser accounts is just as valuable as info on winners. The idea (usually a bad idea) is that you can bet the opposite of a loser account. This is bad advice because losers tend to bet randomly, so their losses aren't a signal for what you should NOT be doing. They're just noise. But regardless, some people try to bet the opposite of loser accounts. And if you're one of those loser accounts, it works to your favor because they're helping your odds by going the other direction. Of course its important to remember, once you start winning, make sure to cycle your accounts ;-)
But you know us, and we love our losers...
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!