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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
ETH Merge
So the ETH merge finally happened. I'm not a big fan of proof of stake (POS) and prefer Bitcoin's proof of work (POW) but I'm glad Ethereum ecosystem pulled it off. PoS is too similar to the current economic model we have, where the people with the money have undue influence on the rest of us. With PoW you can join the system at any point through energy expenditure and you can leave just as easily. It's more democratic.
But since the merge, ETH has been down. It's down over 22% in the last week. I think there was a lot of money piled into it immediately prior to the merge on the hopes of it having a pop once the merge occurred. Anyone following this closely knew there was little risk of the merge going poorly. There was a PoS branch running parallel to the main branch for over a year now and this has been many years in the works. And there was always a chance for a dividend in the PoW branch which didn't do so hot. Fast money got into ETH right before the run up to the merge and has since exited, dropping the price to levels last seen in July. This unfortunately brought down other crypto prices.
I think (hope) the worst is behind us and the opportunistic players have exited leaving only us bag holders. I don't try to game these things so I haven't touched my crypto allocation. In fact, I haven't touched it in over a year.
Action
I know I sound like a broken record but volumes are down and it doesn't look good
The 24 hour average pool size dropped below 15 over the weekend. It likely coincides with a drop in crypto prices due to a missing ETH pop. It's really not good. Throwing money into a 10 BNB prediction pool is really bad. Even with a modest bet, you're really moving the odds.
I don't know if PS guys are going to do anything or just let this thing die on the vine. No one has yet reached out to me but hey, at least if they kill the games I'll free up some time from writing this blog.
Winners and Losers
Again, you can see weekly winners here and the weekly losers here.
| Place | Account | Games Played | Won | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x2e4c5c4b0b7c6b8c02d3c30cb59629d01ec8f074 | 84 | 61.6787 | 15.1109 | 3.6158 |
| 2 | 0x663f97ac76ce3d830f24f8f55a5be664912b14b1 | 118 | 30.4697 | 17.0532 | 1.2530 |
| 3 | 0xd8b53f94144b5bad90b156ecca28422c26c08e6c | 877 | 20.6917 | 46.4373 | 0.3067 |
| 4 | 0xf6ed886951427deb2332e767729c225980061e3a | 18 | 18.9088 | 4.1350 | 3.2161 |
| 5 | 0xd820b68e7c4e822692a805567f4b57e832730533 | 712 | 16.8679 | 2.2432 | 1.5811 |
| 6 | 0x020a6ac31de5fd4f647e566e595d055e03cb07fc | 117 | 15.8847 | 20.9077 | 0.7882 |
| 7 | 0x72fedba512282777f43b420b7175908507d1c0e5 | 337 | 15.6540 | 38.0749 | 0.2496 |
| 8 | 0x66387c31a07ebf63b5c00df759fe22dc2233e339 | 126 | 15.5159 | 3.6608 | 0.4477 |
| 9 | 0x952ba4856f38b252dcae809d5f3bed1e25c45c8e | 395 | 14.9541 | 8.6452 | 1.2491 |
| 10 | 0x46c3082c8206176d99e6a9a94e957963884dbc5f | 360 | 13.2204 | 26.4407 | 0.5000 |
Our top dog is appearing on the blog for the third time. His first appearance was 2022-01-31, at #10 then again on 2022-07-11 at #3 and now he's #1.
He's been playing a lot and had a hell of a run this week. He's up 113 BNB over his life of 3k+ games, more than half of it made in the last week. He bets big, which is all the more impressive considering volumes went to shit this week.
Our #2 just had a good week. He played over 1,200 games over his life and has ~13 BNB to show for it. So yeah...
Let's see how the losers did...
| Place | Account | Games Played | Won | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x5616ee15a593dab14dfcac05055c58f23f560e05 | 263 | -122.4264 | -32.9972 | 2.2242 |
| 2 | 0x6b9fe3914be2fdc7f871798e6886d4f8bad9fe3a | 15 | -66.7277 | -7.6105 | 7.7639 |
| 3 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 889 | -62.7933 | -52.9260 | 0.8320 |
| 4 | 0xed7ab48dbfb82099bad5f26831c3a051c8ff2f4a | 112 | -41.5352 | -13.8837 | 1.7074 |
| 5 | 0xf82f5368b7200b8d5344703ce1590d95f5a47477 | 541 | -39.9525 | 11.6110 | 5.9840 |
| 6 | 0xad24c8fdea96f7b97db39b308990d2fd580d82e1 | 287 | -37.6278 | 0.5659 | 0.8861 |
| 7 | 0xa8c6a4f811e137fc1d66a3cf69118b8e3db989b5 | 211 | -34.7422 | -26.3640 | 0.6073 |
| 8 | 0xf0e03ef0079251c906ee6fa05d28037291f8a651 | 632 | -31.8016 | -38.4840 | 0.7625 |
| 9 | 0xd57051fa3cd71d5607a9650dab726f3313477145 | 285 | -31.3065 | -33.0128 | 0.9487 |
| 10 | 0x5dbf4026e72f223d91ed4ab8da72f253b7019c37 | 137 | -29.9987 | -26.5087 | 1.2393 |
Our top loser is returning champion. Two weeks ago (I was off last week), he lost 216 BNB. This week he only lost 122, so by the logic he should be flat next week and up 100 the following week. He's down 600 over his life so he's got some catching up to do.
Our #2 loser was doing a modified Martingale strategy. I cannot stress this enough, but do not use this "strategy". It doesn't work. You're picking up nickels in front of a bull-dozer.
Martingale or not, we love our losers.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!