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New UST and LUNA will fail
The big story over the last few weeks was the spectacular collapse of UST stable coin. We talked about it a bit two weeks ago but the short story is that UST was supposed to be a stable coin backed by a floating coin (LUNA). If UST strayed above its intended price, more UST is minted and LUNA is burned (you can convert UST to LUNA at a favorable exchange). If UST strays below its intended price, UST is burned and LUNA is minted (you can convert LUNA to UST at a favorable rate). As a kicker, you can earn 20% yield on your stable coin, basically a risk free return. What could go wrong?Well the price of LUNA went to shit along with the price of UST. So there's no amount of LUNA you could mint to support the UST peg. In fact, the more you minted, the lower the price of LUNA got so the less effective it was. In total, the collapse wiped out $45 billion of market cap over a week.
This doesn't pass my smell test. For one how could you yield 20% on a stable asset? How is that sustainable? No one gives you 20%, that's unheard of in traditional finance. One of the riskiest things you can invest in without being institutional investor is stocks and historically they have yielded 8% and varied wildly. If someone is promising you 20% risk free, they're either dumb or scam artists.
Which brings me to the Do Kwon. He's not dumb and he's certainly not taking the L. He's re-launching a new coin, doing an airdrop to some people that lost some money and hoping to spin this up again. His coin collapsed less than a month ago, and you can trade version 2.0 today. What'll be different this time? Absolutely nothing. UST/LUNA lasted about 4 years, I imagine his new project, if it takes off will last less than half that time. And then he'll just spin up another one. At a certain point you have to ask whether this person is nefarious. He knows what he's doing is wrong and will result in the most gullible people losing a lot of money, but he doesn't care. Of course the bag holders will be for this new proposal because they'll have some share. But it's still messed up.
I wrote that every day I become more of a Bitcoin maximalist and scum bags like Do Kwon are the main reason why. He didn't so much as miss a beat. Basically call his old coin "classic" and launch a new one. It's also not entirely clear what he did with the Bitcoin and other crypto reserves he had to support UST. When it started hitting the fan, some UST holders were able to redeem their token supported by the reserves. I've read that those luck enough were insiders (why wouldn't they be?).
Shame on everyone involved. All the exchanges that will list this shit coin. All the developers working on it. And especially Do Kwon for having the nerve to run the same rug-pull twice in a row. I'm going to explore ways to short both new LUNA and UST. The hard thing is its usually expensive to short. If UST is yielding 20%, borrowing it from someone and dumping it will cost you at least 20% because the person lending it out could just use Anchorage protocol to earn 20%, so why would he let you borrow it?
Anyway, I'll keep everyone posted if I find something and hopefully enough people will end this before it gets out of hand.
Action
Volume was respectable although fairly variable with much of the week above 30 BNB
We did have a number of big rounds:
| epoch | start | pool | |
| 73225 | 2022-05-26 | 12:18:22 | 120.240818 |
| 73224 | 2022-05-26 | 12:13:15 | 111.248566 |
| 73227 | 2022-05-26 | 12:28:40 | 102.455781 |
| 72889 | 2022-05-25 | 07:28:50 | 93.971531 |
| 73601 | 2022-05-27 | 20:35:43 | 91.032824 |
| 72679 | 2022-05-24 | 13:27:45 | 89.234260 |
| 73223 | 2022-05-26 | 12:08:09 | 89.195118 |
| 73229 | 2022-05-26 | 12:39:01 | 86.540732 |
| 72944 | 2022-05-25 | 12:12:02 | 80.831439 |
| 72659 | 2022-05-24 | 11:44:50 | 76.497711 |
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x9b371993da2ed6f32b8ceda6491c0c326d0e4da2 | 124 | 128.98 | 38,695.0 | 25.03 | 4.41 |
| 2 | 0xfc26b3be9d11b93dd1aa932969dd2e55fec3681d | 128 | 69.19 | 20,758.0 | 31.47 | 1.47 |
| 3 | 0x8d8aa4f2390dd31add06ce6a9374542020272d6b | 99 | 44.93 | 13,480.0 | 18.73 | 1.95 |
| 4 | 0x6067d0f351d8fd0306d3bc15468a8c7f65d67e6c | 120 | 39.32 | 11,795.0 | 12.68 | 2.01 |
| 5 | 0xda412c59e0683d3da4e61dd607f2cfc9911856eb | 53 | 38.0 | 11,401.0 | 19.84 | 2.09 |
| 6 | 0x59a6d2b9bb2b04a09b84c315e64620d1250a01a9 | 38 | 37.62 | 11,285.0 | 4.49 | 8.16 |
| 7 | 0xc489811e853e10195365228575aeeb7a1c9ff875 | 285 | 32.62 | 9,787.0 | 3.08 | 2.23 |
| 8 | 0x7bb055421f56e28432767eb7e75e479f0a9dcdfa | 431 | 31.56 | 9,469.0 | 19.22 | 1.14 |
| 9 | 0xcd8346b1d68751b17af213f972df50371cb3baee | 157 | 29.39 | 8,818.0 | 2.25 | 1.77 |
| 10 | 0x02532860709f4df8682a8b0a715f0006517b00fb | 110 | 21.93 | 6,580.0 | 12.98 | 1.35 |
We had our first 100 BNB weekly winner in a few weeks. The bet size was very big and the account was inactive until this week. Its initial funding came from a binance hot wallet and eventually the person transferred their entire balance to an aggregator. It's definitely a sophisticated outfit since the few accounts that were funnelling money made a killing on the markets, all with big bet sizes too.
Let's look at the losers
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 779 | -68.01 | -20,404.0 | -52.92 | 0.98 |
| 2 | 0xd9c72e454ceb25cc53a864f190fe2896249718e1 | 48 | -65.46 | -19,637.0 | -11.08 | 6.47 |
| 3 | 0xa8decb37e9a0dbde16d7d781ffa44ff1ebb84c2c | 108 | -64.61 | -19,384.0 | -25.02 | 2.06 |
| 4 | 0xd4682c8b567fd987682d8cd7d2d599bdf526c156 | 38 | -62.96 | -18,887.0 | -8.75 | 2.61 |
| 5 | 0xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac | 527 | -61.31 | -18,393.0 | -23.53 | 2.59 |
| 6 | 0xb55b2f2061048c6240e77f32cff1d2eac70cf317 | 129 | -57.03 | -17,110.0 | -20.82 | 0.9 |
| 7 | 0x78105a92ef54072e6b37d251644879f7d0009a4d | 24 | -52.67 | -15,801.0 | -5.36 | 6.03 |
| 8 | 0x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 | 491 | -47.95 | -14,384.0 | -39.88 | 0.91 |
| 9 | 0x1dfc050456623570ba698ce9412d7bcd34913af9 | 234 | -47.37 | -14,210.0 | -19.41 | 1.33 |
| 10 | 0xe3d89cded7cff330d5dbc2ddc9595fcc4735d3f3 | 263 | -45.87 | -13,760.0 | -15.48 | 1.44 |
After a few crazy weeks with losers, we return to somewhat normalcy. Our top loser is an algo-bot and a fan favorite. This marks like 9th time making the leaderboard, almost always as a loser. He was last on the board last week in 9th place losing 37 BNB. He was also #4 on the top loser board of all time, and I'm happy to say that this week he rose to #3 biggest all time loser with total losses of nearly 780 BNB. And because this is BSC Predict, and we love our losers, we're sending some extra love to 0xad483.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!