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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
Bitcoin Conferences
Apparently there was a Bitcoin conference in Miami. I wasn't there, but from everything I heard it was mostly people giving going up on stage and yelling at Bitcoin holders to buy more Bitcoin. I'm more bullish on Bitcoin than web3 in general, but its kind of depressing. The equivalent of a sweaty Steve Balmer and Microsoft gang going on stage and chanting DEVELOPERS, DEVELOPERS...
I get it bro. You own a lot of Bitcoin. Congrats. I too own some Bitcoin. When I get more money I might but some more. But if you talk at a conference, you should offer something more.
One exception was a speech by Peter Thiel. He's always interesting to listen to. I recommend his book Zero to One. It's a quick read.
He considers Ethereum a payment network, so not a real competitor to Bitcoin. He talks about Bitcoin as a leveraged Nasdaq stock, which seems about right, at least in terms of price movement. Thiel brings up that in the 1970s, gold and the equity market were about the same in terms of market cap, but obviously equities surpassed gold and are now maybe 100-1. He uses that same metric to discuss how we should consider the Bitcoin to equity ratio as opposed to Bitcoin to gold ratio often talked about.
I'm not sure what the take away from that is. Number go up? I don't know, but it does make sense considering crypto moves with equity markets, and it has not been correlated with inflation, as it has underperformed when inflation started shooting up.
Towards the end of the speech, Thiel announced a Bitcoin enemies list. I'll list them and some of the entertaining points below.
Warren Buffet - Sociopathic grandpa from Omaha. Someone like him is always talking his book. If you're a money manager, you have to pretend its complicated to invest, so naturally just buying Bitcoin sounds terrible to you.
Jamie Dimon - NYC banker type
Larry Fink - CEO of Blackrock. Most equity holdings today are held by ETFs like Blackrock. This means that people like Larry Fink have a lot of power in terms of forcing companies to do things. Fink has some "pro-crypto" quotes, but Thiel arguest that pro blockchain is an anti-bitcoin term, which I kind of agree with. The argument is that Bitcoin is the old thing, we need "blockchain" that I still have a change of controlling. Thiel argues we should push ETFs to hold Bitcoin.
ESG - essentially a hate factory. When you think ESG, you should be thinking CCP. The only companies ESG really hates is energy companies and Bitcoin. Because the rest are pretty much under their control and pay their penance. Going public is basically a government takeover where extensions of the state are given power. Bitcoin doesn't have this
In summary, you get a finance gerontocracy that runs the country through virtue signaling and hate factory on one side versus the youth on the other
It wasn't the most interesting speech I've heard Thiel make, and I think a lot of it was playing up to the "number go up audience", but it's worth listening to.
Action
Volumes have come down from last week with much of the week's round sizes below 30. Nothing else really sticks out.
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x0f4107e03d6ad34e781b13d806b9f881bbe47ad4 | 553 | 122.04 | 46,376.0 | 16.53 | 0.96 |
| 2 | 0xee070f1eedd8843eb5eff7aedbdefa86eb73b1eb | 128 | 35.03 | 13,311.0 | 16.66 | 1.18 |
| 3 | 0xf2179e2c0860833b72d7b2ffaa7543aba6fc5a12 | 80 | 31.96 | 12,146.0 | 12.34 | 2.88 |
| 4 | 0x143f2648f6ac2270e4c5870ca7d052f64e2ce5e1 | 205 | 29.93 | 11,373.0 | 38.78 | 0.51 |
| 5 | 0x7dc1ef5bb9476e5e1dca0045a83e528fe7422449 | 317 | 28.27 | 10,744.0 | 22.39 | 1.01 |
| 6 | 0xf1ba0d51167abed2a7c9a410050e39a62eb74157 | 115 | 25.01 | 9,504.0 | 21.24 | 1.21 |
| 7 | 0xac97deaf1e372866120695498b7559635b208143 | 89 | 24.57 | 9,335.0 | 6.91 | 0.81 |
| 8 | 0x1163ae4790a21512f854403b6395991a3ac05066 | 235 | 24.28 | 9,225.0 | 27.51 | 0.47 |
| 9 | 0xcb524544d84b08d8f681f59033033f45b1e25c78 | 10 | 24.06 | 9,141.0 | 0.93 | 19.95 |
| 10 | 0x07f94990dacfe4eb646a587592db2bff3d4f9130 | 25 | 23.77 | 9,032.0 | 7.07 | 1.9 |
One big winner, but not an impressive record overall considering he's still down 80 BNB over his life.
He just had a few very big rounds. His even money and average bet size aren't that impressive. He won on net 16 games (adjusted for odds) and bet an average 1 BNB. But his bet sizes varied wildly from 0.1 to 30 BNB; not something I would recommend. My bet is we'll be seeing more of him in the coming weeks...
Let's look at the losers
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xb4d2a30b29dc1a9d8b7ec522da59555afe3db991 | 214 | -93.28 | -35,448.0 | -19.41 | 2.81 |
| 2 | 0xc008a0bfc32cbedd1c66688be60d26d81717e459 | 94 | -83.73 | -31,817.0 | -16.42 | 3.69 |
| 3 | 0xd98faa5b3ed314b39732bf86d5286d8e7de4c819 | 22 | -55.43 | -21,063.0 | -6.51 | 6.18 |
| 4 | 0xcf3fad79bb3080ff50b3c4721af88ee3a1ff1b58 | 145 | -53.58 | -20,362.0 | 2.43 | 2.91 |
| 5 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 438 | -44.99 | -17,096.0 | -48.17 | 0.88 |
| 6 | 0xc4a9d922b0abf9a9c82f6a99f18fbe53164b3e1c | 54 | -41.77 | -15,873.0 | 2.13 | 5.93 |
| 7 | 0x7eb317dcbb90f54d0ac624fdecef0da4df7b7b5c | 94 | -41.36 | -15,718.0 | -31.77 | 1.23 |
| 8 | 0x0ba4ffaa9f0f1962f69929011c092a819c31e6f4 | 157 | -40.2 | -15,277.0 | -12.03 | 2.03 |
| 9 | 0x4e3599f69266d6edd21c00ae77019305c524d6f2 | 2 | -40.0 | -15,200.0 | -2.0 | 20.0 |
| 10 | 0x93dfdbc5c59fa70942949d93eafdf25d861bda94 | 331 | -39.24 | -14,913.0 | -14.54 | 0.72 |
Most of the top losers had huge bet sizes and paid the price. Our top dog ran out of money and bet his last 19.9898 BNB on 59143 to wipe himself out completely. At least he didn't re-up. Sending love to our losers.
Anyway, that's all I have for this week.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!