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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
What a week
We saw a lot of action this week with round size spiking hard on Friday and continuing strong throughout the weekend. This coincided with a strong BNB rally to levels we haven't ever seen in v2 of the games. With BNB up to mid-600s, we're nearing all time highs reached pre-crypto collapse in April of 2021.
Ether and Bitcoin have been rallying since October approaching near all time highs, but BNB has been lagging until popping this week by about 20%. CAKE has been doing pretty well as well for anyone staking in PancakeSwap.
If you're throwing around real weight in prediction markets, I would recommend keeping only the minimum amount of working capital in your active wallet and transferring into and out of it as needed. I see this patten a lot on very active accounts where there is one wallet that distributes to smaller wallets to play.
I would also recommend not being over-exposed to one crypto currency. You can stay in the BNB ecosystem and shifting your tokens to wrapped BNB, ETH or stable coins (other than Tether).
Winners and Losers
Here are the big winners for this week.| from | games played | won | won even money |
| 0x9cfbdbc1561b1e9eb3183d74d847dce9b53ae590 | 679 | 70.22 | 23.27 |
| 0xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9 | 11 | 51.75 | 3.58 |
| 0xe58298470e415de4208feb34741a7737d18c2123 | 51 | 45.32 | 7.84 |
| 0xc480fa7faf9e22b4756287770e9af51716b0d335 | 379 | 35.09 | 4.63 |
| 0x7479376637d999ca9f1cb2f214cbd2c8ce10b7f6 | 7 | 23.57 | 0.30 |
| 0xd9430ec9f7e91f30027fc4c8dcc780b169d25a22 | 262 | 22.45 | 25.13 |
A lot of the big winners just bet big. You can tell by looking at the prediction leaderboard and noticing the winner only played 18 games with huge bet sizes. He might have some alpha, but winning 16 out of 18 alone isn't all that impressive and the bet sizes are reckless.
That being said, 0x9cf did great even with even bets and the number of games played is impressive.
I like to also consider even money bet size, which assumes that each bet was for a fixed amount. This underplays the skill of the player because dynamic bet sizing based on probability and payout are incredibly important. But it's also true that not everyone has a 6 figure bankroll to play with.
| from | games played | won | won even money |
| 0xb859654ed6ef01ea16e0f7988b6a50d07727976c | 932 | 15.5247075450082 | 67.9269178996664 |
| 0x620a727b9cc4ba48a809c14cd9f4399c7f31c800 | 277 | 2.63628738380167 | 59.2981801062967 |
| 0x6a70fd0f76b5d5f8874307f91c4ec22c617f999c | 895 | 7.78111495382275 | 55.3195938479955 |
| 0x8cef9eefbaa17779c37f6569413d0bdb02469ea9 | 583 | 15.2389594731505 | 47.8070799649447 |
| 0x0be28a5d93960168ba4f4aded7f7ff113aa2d22e | 484 | 10.1230384030531 | 46.3643725942199 |
| 0xe0759804bc9d40a78ad066fad61b86f232efce2b | 305 | 0.318635120051004 | 43.9750903812996 |
These are some very impressive numbers and consistent performance while playing around the clock.
And of course the losers need some love too. They contribute to the payoff. Fallen heros, we salute you.
| from | games played | won | won even money |
| 0x0f4107e03d6ad34e781b13d806b9f881bbe47ad4 | 183 | -234.77 | -26.73 |
| 0xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92 | 799 | -152.53 | -34.40 |
| 0x35195c58974ac78520abeb6010fc95695f738267 | 279 | -86.88 | -29.28 |
| 0xcec86bf515f78697fb13f6899268430d6c71e34c | 25 | -80.37 | -6.84 |
| 0x39465e192b63e42a3daf16c88b721deea9e913ce | 15 | -75.84 | -4.97 |
| 0xbce32e48e4b5f1ac056d98e51e5d90103d13484e | 32 | -62.53 | -1.19 |
Announcements
There's a lot of things brewing here that I'll be announcing over the next few days/weeks. I'm going to release starter code to run your own trading bot. I also decided to open up an API for users to query player and fund stats. So look out for that. Best way not to miss that is to subscribe to the mailing list.
I'm also open to interviewing people anonymously via email about their strategy and trading setup. Email me if you're interested.
That's it for this week. It's exciting living through another crypto rally. As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!